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biochar 2030 bounds - #2420

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tabeado wants to merge 2 commits into
remindmodel:developfrom
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Open

biochar 2030 bounds#2420
tabeado wants to merge 2 commits into
remindmodel:developfrom
tabeado:develop

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@tabeado

@tabeado tabeado commented Jul 27, 2026

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Purpose of this PR

Add an upper bound on biochar for 2030. Assumption is a maximum annual growth rate of 70%.
For reference, the compounded annual growth rate in the 2020s has reached 60% in Europe.

There is no influence on default scenarios. Only relevant to avoid large increases where there are strong mitigation pressure and geologic CO2 storage constraints.

Type of change

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Parts concerned

  • ☑️ GAMS Code
  • ◻️ R-scripts
  • ◻️ Documentation (GAMS incode documentation, comments, tutorials)
  • ◻️ Input data / CES parameters
  • ◻️ Tests, CI/CD (continuous integration/deployment)
  • ◻️ Configuration (switches in main.gms, default.cfg, and scenario_config*.csv files)
  • ◻️ Other (please give a description)

Impact

  • ◻️ Bug fix
  • ◻️ Refactoring
  • ◻️ New feature
  • ☑️ Change of parameter values or input data (including CES parameters)
  • ☑️ Minor change (default scenarios show only small differences)
  • ◻️ Fundamental change of results of default scenarios

Checklist

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  • I executed the automated model tests (make test) after my final commit and all tests pass (FAIL 0)
  • I adjusted the reporting in remind2 if and where it was needed
  • I adjusted the madrat packages (mrremind and other packages involved) for input data generation if and where it was needed
  • My code follows the coding etiquette
  • I explained my changes within the PR, particularly in hard-to-understand areas
  • I checked that the in-code documentation is up-to-date
  • I adjusted forbiddenColumnNames in readCheckScenarioConfig.R in case the PR leads to deprecated switches
  • I updated the CHANGELOG.md correctly (added, changed, fixed, removed, input data/calibration)

Further information (optional)

  • Runs with these changes are here:
  • Comparison of results (what changes by this PR?):

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Pull request overview

Adds a near-term capacity upper bound for biochar/pyrolysis technologies in 2030 to prevent implausibly large scale-ups under strong mitigation pressure and limited geologic CO₂ storage, assuming a 70% maximum annual growth rate.

Changes:

  • Keeps the 2025 upper bound at 70% above the 2025 lower bound derived from 2024 values.
  • Introduces a 2030 upper bound by compounding the 2025 upper bound with a 70% annual growth factor over 5 years.

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2 participants