📊 Update UCDP CED preview with Q2 2026 data - #6596
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Replace the Q1 2026 Candidate Events Dataset snapshot (v26.01.26.03) with the Q2 release (v26.01.26.06), covering January-June 2026. Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5 (1M context) <noreply@anthropic.com> Claude-Session: https://claude.ai/code/session_018ChnntjYYCJsSUcPtrB17u
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data-diff: ❌ 1 changed — full report~ garden/war/latest/ucdp_preview
~ dataset metadata changed
~ ucdp_preview (changed table metadata)
~ ucdp_preview.number_deaths_ongoing_conflicts (changed metadata, changed data)
~ Changed values: 208 / 82,108 (0.25%)
2026 Niger intrastate (non-internationalized): 0 → 208
2026 Mauritania all: 0 → 150
2026 Mauritania intrastate: 0 → 150
(+205 more)
~ ucdp_preview.number_deaths_ongoing_conflicts_civilians (changed metadata, changed data)
~ Changed values: 179 / 82,108 (0.22%)
2026 Colombia one-sided violence: 0 → 61
2026 Chad intrastate (internationalized): 0 → 24
2026 Mozambique one-sided violence: 0 → 23
(+176 more)
~ ucdp_preview.number_deaths_ongoing_conflicts_combatants (changed metadata, changed data)
~ Changed values: 171 / 82,108 (0.21%)
2026 Mauritania all: 0 → 150
2026 Mauritania intrastate: 0 → 150
2026 Mauritania intrastate (internationalized): 0 → 150
(+168 more)
~ ucdp_preview.number_deaths_ongoing_conflicts_high (changed metadata, changed data)
~ Changed values: 208 / 82,108 (0.25%)
2026 Nigeria non-state conflict: 0 → 276
2026 Niger intrastate (non-internationalized): 0 → 272
2026 Mali non-state conflict: 0 → 201
(+205 more)
~ ucdp_preview.number_deaths_ongoing_conflicts_high_per_capita (changed metadata, changed data)
~ Changed values: 208 / 82,108 (0.25%)
2026 Mauritania all: 0.0 → 2.7465882301330566
2026 Mauritania intrastate: 0.0 → 2.7465882301330566
2026 Mauritania intrastate (internationalized): 0.0 → 2.7465882301330566
(+205 more)
~ ucdp_preview.number_deaths_ongoing_conflicts_low (changed metadata, changed data)
~ Changed values: 208 / 82,108 (0.25%)
2026 Mauritania all: 0 → 150
2026 Mauritania intrastate: 0 → 150
2026 Mauritania intrastate (internationalized): 0 → 150
(+205 more)
~ ucdp_preview.number_deaths_ongoing_conflicts_low_per_capita (changed metadata, changed data)
~ Changed values: 208 / 82,108 (0.25%)
2026 Mauritania all: 0.0 → 2.7465882301330566
2026 Mauritania intrastate: 0.0 → 2.7465882301330566
2026 Mauritania intrastate (internationalized): 0.0 → 2.7465882301330566
(+205 more)
~ ucdp_preview.number_deaths_ongoing_conflicts_per_capita (changed metadata, changed data)
~ Changed values: 208 / 82,108 (0.25%)
2026 Mauritania all: 0.0 → 2.7465882301330566
2026 Mauritania intrastate: 0.0 → 2.7465882301330566
2026 Mauritania intrastate (internationalized): 0.0 → 2.7465882301330566
(+205 more)
~ ucdp_preview.number_deaths_ongoing_conflicts_unknown (changed metadata, changed data)
~ Changed values: 144 / 82,108 (0.18%)
2026 Africa (UCDP) non-state conflict: 0 → 220
2026 Sudan non-state conflict: 0 → 96
2026 Niger intrastate (non-internationalized): 0 → 64
(+141 more)
~ ucdp_preview.number_new_conflicts (changed metadata)
~ ucdp_preview.number_new_conflicts_per_country (changed metadata)
~ ucdp_preview.number_new_conflicts_per_country_pair (changed metadata)
~ ucdp_preview.number_ongoing_conflicts (changed metadata, changed data)
~ Changed values: 103 / 82,108 (0.13%)
2026 Mali non-state conflict: 0 → 3
2026 Nigeria non-state conflict: 0 → 3
2026 Cameroon intrastate: 0 → 2
(+100 more)
~ ucdp_preview.number_ongoing_conflicts_per_country (changed metadata, changed data)
~ Changed values: 26 / 82,108 (0.03%)
2026 Africa (UCDP) non-state conflict: 0.03773584961891174 → 0.16981132328510284
2026 Americas (UCDP) one-sided violence: 0.02857142873108387 → 0.08571428805589676
2026 World non-state conflict: 0.04060913622379303 → 0.08629441261291504
(+23 more)
~ ucdp_preview.number_ongoing_conflicts_per_country_pair (changed metadata, changed data)
~ Changed values: 26 / 82,108 (0.03%)
2026 Africa (UCDP) non-state conflict: 0.0014513788046315312 → 0.00653120456263423
2026 Americas (UCDP) one-sided violence: 0.0016806722851470113 → 0.005042016971856356
2026 World non-state conflict: 0.00041437894105911255 → 0.0008805552497506142
(+23 more)
~ ucdp_preview_country (changed table metadata)
~ ucdp_preview_country.number_participants (changed metadata, changed data)
~ Changed values: 14 / 95,191 (0.01%)
2026 Africa intrastate (non-internationalized): 3 → 6
2026 World intrastate (non-internationalized): 9 → 14
2026 Asia and Oceania intrastate: 4 → 6
(+11 more)
~ ucdp_preview_country.participated_in_conflict (changed metadata, changed data)
~ Changed values: 17 / 95,191 (0.02%)
2026 Benin intrastate: 0 → 1
2026 Benin intrastate (non-internationalized): 0 → 1
2026 Benin state-based: 0 → 1
(+14 more)
~ ucdp_preview_locations (changed table metadata)
~ ucdp_preview_locations.is_location_of_conflict (changed metadata, changed data)
~ Changed values: 42 / 72,504 (0.06%)
2026 Afghanistan one-sided violence: 0 → 1
2026 Bangladesh all: 1 → 0
2026 Bangladesh one-sided violence: 1 → 0
(+39 more)
~ ucdp_preview_locations.number_locations (changed metadata, changed data)
~ Changed values: 24 / 72,504 (0.03%)
2026 Africa non-state conflict: 2 → 7
2026 World non-state conflict: 4 → 10
2026 Africa intrastate (non-internationalized): 4 → 8
(+21 more)Automatically updated datasets matching excess_mortality|covid|fluid|flunet|country_profile|garden/ihme_gbd/2019/gbd_risk are not included. Run locally with Edited: 2026-08-03 17:56:28 UTC |
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| date_accessed: "2026-08-03" | ||
| license: | ||
| name: CC BY 4.0 | ||
| url: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ |
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For this new Q2 snapshot, license.url points to the generic Creative Commons deed rather than a UCDP page or PDF where UCDP states the dataset's terms. This leaves Grapher's per-origin metadata without a producer-authored license source; replace it with UCDP's own license statement, or leave it empty if UCDP publishes none.
AGENTS.md reference: AGENTS.md:L278-L278
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Use "first half of the year" in the note, matching key_point_pre_1 and the MDIM/chart subtitles. Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5 (1M context) <noreply@anthropic.com> Claude-Session: https://claude.ai/code/session_018ChnntjYYCJsSUcPtrB17u
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August 4, 2026 09:29
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Updates the UCDP CED preview to the Q2 2026 release (
v26.01.26.06, Jan–Jun 2026), replacing the Q1 snapshot (v26.01.26.03). The stable 26.1 release already covers 2025, so no other CED snapshot remains in the DAG. Fixes https://github.com/owid/owid-issues/issues/2477.Updated charts:
Update summary
TL;DR
Top-20 countries by 2026 H1 deaths (
conflict_type='all')pace_vs_2025= H1 2026 / (2025_full / 2) — i.e. 1.0 means H1 is on the same annual pace as 2025.Verification
40eca715…) matches an independent download of the source CSV. 10,051 events (Q1: 4,849), allyear == 2026,date_startspanning 2026-01-01 → 2026-06-30, IDs unique. Column set and order identical to Q1 (49 columns), so no source schema drift.bestsum 104,501.active_yearevents (conflicts that crossed UCDP's 25-death threshold), and the output matches the rawactive_year==1subtotals exactly — state-based 72,017 · non-state 1,717 · one-sided 2,937 · all 76,671. The 22,205 one-sided deaths excluded are actor-years below the threshold at export time, the same pattern as Q1.deaths-in-armed-conflicts-by-region.csvtops out at 2026 with World 76,671 / Europe 47,261 / Ukraine 47,050, matching the garden output.global-healthexplorer view that renders chart 8292 picked the new text up automatically).make checkpasses.Still open
Proposed (needs sign-off)
map.time: 2025, a chart-level admin override; the chart's default tab ismap). It is pre-existing, not introduced here, but it now contradicts the chart's own subtitle, which says 2026 is included. Options: bump to2026so the map shows the newest (half-)year, or leave it on the last complete year deliberately. I left it untouched — say which you want and I'll apply it on staging.noteoverrides on charts 8290/8292 are now redundant. They are byte-identical to the indicator-level ETL note, so deleting the two overrides would make the footnote inherit from ETL and remove one manual step from every future quarterly update. Not done, since the issue asks for the override to be set explicitly.Handed off
#data-updates-commsannouncement — not drafted. Run/data-updates-commswhen the PR is ready to merge.Unverified
map.timeaudit covered only the two charts on this dataset and the MDIM views. The MDIM has five views withtimelineMinTime: 1989, which is a lower bound and cannot hide new data — no other time pins exist.