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Add explicit-state profile likelihood - #82

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jonathanberthias wants to merge 4 commits into
migration/scipy-wrapper-catalogfrom
migration/explicit-state-profiler
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jonathanberthias wants to merge 4 commits into
migration/scipy-wrapper-catalogfrom
migration/explicit-state-profiler

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@jonathanberthias

@jonathanberthias jonathanberthias commented Sep 26, 2026 •

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The public profiler refits by creating distributions with replaced parameter values. It cannot directly use a stable structural model with an explicit fitted state. FitResult also omits fitting observations, which would force a new profiler to accept a second dataset and risk profiling different data.

This PR retains an independent, read-only observation snapshot on FitResult and adds Profiler(fit, confidence=...). It fixes a scalar Parameter at each physical candidate value and refits nuisance parameters on the shared snapshot. Nearby successful profiles supply starting states. Interval searches stop expanding once they have a valid likelihood-cutoff bracket, then refine the confidence limits with Brent's method.

The legacy public profiler remains available. Vector-parameter profiles and custom score functions need separate contracts. A general search for feasible nuisance starts is outside this slice; when available starts cannot produce a bracket, the profiler reports that failure without asserting a support boundary.

@jonathanberthias
jonathanberthias force-pushed the migration/explicit-state-profiler branch from 6b2278f to f2c99b3 Compare September 26, 2026 14:25
@jonathanberthias
jonathanberthias force-pushed the migration/explicit-state-profiler branch from f2c99b3 to 865ad0d Compare September 26, 2026 19:15
@jonathanberthias
jonathanberthias added this pull request to stack #84 September 26, 2026 19:15
@jonathanberthias
jonathanberthias force-pushed the migration/explicit-state-profiler branch 2 times, most recently from 42708cb to f14acb9 Compare September 26, 2026 19:36
@jonathanberthias
jonathanberthias force-pushed the migration/explicit-state-profiler branch 2 times, most recently from 3df77ca to 698a81a Compare September 26, 2026 19:52
@jonathanberthias
jonathanberthias force-pushed the migration/explicit-state-profiler branch from 698a81a to d17dc33 Compare September 27, 2026 11:43
@jonathanberthias
jonathanberthias force-pushed the migration/explicit-state-profiler branch 2 times, most recently from f6fefc3 to 67b49e8 Compare September 27, 2026 12:12
@jonathanberthias
jonathanberthias force-pushed the migration/explicit-state-profiler branch from 67b49e8 to ee2664d Compare September 27, 2026 12:17
@jonathanberthias
jonathanberthias force-pushed the migration/explicit-state-profiler branch from ee2664d to 3e0f5b9 Compare September 27, 2026 13:46
@jonathanberthias
jonathanberthias force-pushed the migration/explicit-state-profiler branch from 3e0f5b9 to 6d69535 Compare September 27, 2026 13:51
@jonathanberthias
jonathanberthias force-pushed the migration/explicit-state-profiler branch from 6d69535 to 4e1e242 Compare September 27, 2026 20:27
@jonathanberthias
jonathanberthias force-pushed the migration/explicit-state-profiler branch from 4e1e242 to fd2630a Compare October 2, 2026 22:25
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