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ML model to predict power outage duration for microgrids.

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⚡ ML Power Outage Duration Predictor

Predicts whether a power outage will be Short (≤24hrs) or Long (>24hrs) using Machine Learning

🏆 Final Results

Metric Score
Accuracy 70.7% ✅
ROC-AUC 0.758 ✅
F1 Score 0.70+
vs Baseline +20.7%

🗃️ Datasets (4 total)

Dataset Source Role
EAGLE-I 2021-22 ORNL/Figshare Grid scale features
DOE OE-417 Maven Analytics Target variable
Okoli 2020 Mendeley Microgrid benchmarks
NOAA Storm Events NOAA/NCDC Weather context

📈 Model Journey

Step Approach Score
1 Regression R²=0.20 ❌
2 3-class Classification 48.0%
3 Binary Classification 66.4%
4 Tuned Voting Ensemble 67.6%
5 + Weather Data 70.7% ✅

🔧 Tech Stack

Python Pandas Scikit-learn XGBoost Matplotlib Google Colab

ML Pipeline

  1. Data collection (4 datasets)
  2. Cleaning & merging
  3. Feature engineering (50+ features → 30 selected)
  4. SelectKBest feature selection
  5. Voting Ensemble (RF + XGBoost + Extra Trees)
  6. GridSearchCV hyperparameter tuning

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ML model to predict power outage duration for microgrids.

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